diff --git a/docs/PRODUCTION-RELEASE-CHECKLIST.md b/docs/PRODUCTION-RELEASE-CHECKLIST.md
index c1b17b69b..ac866b727 100644
--- a/docs/PRODUCTION-RELEASE-CHECKLIST.md
+++ b/docs/PRODUCTION-RELEASE-CHECKLIST.md
@@ -51,12 +51,18 @@ ls -lh "$BACKUP_DIR"
 
 发布前只读检查生产库状态：
 
+```bash
+docker exec xiaoxia-api-production python /app/scripts/alembic_preflight.py
+```
+
+也可手动检查：
+
 ```bash
 docker exec xiaoxia-postgres psql -U xiaoxia -d xiaoxia_saas -Atc "select to_regclass('public.alembic_version');"
 docker exec xiaoxia-postgres psql -U xiaoxia -d xiaoxia_saas -Atc "select count(*) from pg_tables where schemaname='public' and tablename != 'alembic_version';"
 ```
 
-判断规则：
+脚本 `recommended_action` 判断规则：
 
 - 已存在 `alembic_version`：执行 `alembic upgrade head`。
 - 有业务表但没有 `alembic_version`：先执行 `alembic stamp head`，再执行 `alembic upgrade head`。
diff --git a/scripts/alembic_preflight.py b/scripts/alembic_preflight.py
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..366ddc1ac
--- /dev/null
+++ b/scripts/alembic_preflight.py
@@ -0,0 +1,84 @@
+"""Preflight Alembic state before a production release."""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import argparse
+import os
+from dataclasses import dataclass
+
+from sqlalchemy import create_engine, text
+
+
+@dataclass(frozen=True)
+class AlembicPreflightResult:
+    has_alembic_version: bool
+    business_table_count: int
+    current_revision: str | None
+    head_revision: str
+
+    @property
+    def action(self) -> str:
+        if self.has_alembic_version:
+            if self.current_revision == self.head_revision:
+                return "upgrade_head_noop_or_verify"
+            return "upgrade_head"
+        if self.business_table_count > 0:
+            return "stamp_head_then_upgrade_head"
+        return "upgrade_head_empty_database"
+
+
+def get_head_revision() -> str:
+    from alembic.config import Config
+    from alembic.script import ScriptDirectory
+
+    config = Config("alembic.ini")
+    script = ScriptDirectory.from_config(config)
+    head = script.get_current_head()
+    if not head:
+        raise RuntimeError("Alembic head revision not found")
+    return head
+
+
+def inspect_database(database_url: str, head_revision: str) -> AlembicPreflightResult:
+    engine = create_engine(database_url)
+    with engine.begin() as connection:
+        has_alembic_version = (
+            connection.execute(
+                text("SELECT to_regclass(:table_name)"), {"table_name": "public.alembic_version"}
+            ).scalar()
+            is not None
+        )
+        business_table_count = connection.execute(
+            text("SELECT COUNT(*) FROM pg_tables " "WHERE schemaname = :schema_name AND tablename != :version_table"),
+            {"schema_name": "public", "version_table": "alembic_version"},
+        ).scalar_one()
+        current_revision = None
+        if has_alembic_version:
+            current_revision = connection.execute(text("SELECT version_num FROM alembic_version LIMIT 1")).scalar()
+
+    return AlembicPreflightResult(
+        has_alembic_version=has_alembic_version,
+        business_table_count=int(business_table_count),
+        current_revision=current_revision,
+        head_revision=head_revision,
+    )
+
+
+def main() -> int:
+    parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description=__doc__)
+    parser.add_argument("--database-url", default=os.getenv("DATABASE_URL"), help="Defaults to DATABASE_URL.")
+    args = parser.parse_args()
+    if not args.database_url:
+        raise SystemExit("DATABASE_URL is required")
+
+    result = inspect_database(args.database_url, get_head_revision())
+    print(f"has_alembic_version={str(result.has_alembic_version).lower()}")
+    print(f"business_table_count={result.business_table_count}")
+    print(f"current_revision={result.current_revision or '<none>'}")
+    print(f"head_revision={result.head_revision}")
+    print(f"recommended_action={result.action}")
+    return 0
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    raise SystemExit(main())
diff --git a/tests/unit/test_alembic_preflight.py b/tests/unit/test_alembic_preflight.py
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..f7cec0004
--- /dev/null
+++ b/tests/unit/test_alembic_preflight.py
@@ -0,0 +1,45 @@
+from scripts.alembic_preflight import AlembicPreflightResult
+
+
+def test_alembic_preflight_action_for_current_version():
+    result = AlembicPreflightResult(
+        has_alembic_version=True,
+        business_table_count=12,
+        current_revision="002",
+        head_revision="002",
+    )
+
+    assert result.action == "upgrade_head_noop_or_verify"
+
+
+def test_alembic_preflight_action_for_old_version():
+    result = AlembicPreflightResult(
+        has_alembic_version=True,
+        business_table_count=12,
+        current_revision="001",
+        head_revision="002",
+    )
+
+    assert result.action == "upgrade_head"
+
+
+def test_alembic_preflight_action_for_existing_tables_without_version():
+    result = AlembicPreflightResult(
+        has_alembic_version=False,
+        business_table_count=12,
+        current_revision=None,
+        head_revision="002",
+    )
+
+    assert result.action == "stamp_head_then_upgrade_head"
+
+
+def test_alembic_preflight_action_for_empty_database():
+    result = AlembicPreflightResult(
+        has_alembic_version=False,
+        business_table_count=0,
+        current_revision=None,
+        head_revision="002",
+    )
+
+    assert result.action == "upgrade_head_empty_database"